FXUS63 KEAX 210856 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 256 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Generally dry conditions expected through early next week. - Next chance for precipitation (20-30%) will be Wednesday into Thanksgiving. Wintry precipitation may be posible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 This morning through most of today, the forecast area will be wedged between a surface low to the east that will be dropping south through the western great Lakes into the Ohio River Valley and a surface ridge of high pressure building into the Great Plains. This will keep the pressure gradient tight across the area and make a blustery and cool day with highs in the 40s and northwest winds gusting 25 to 35 mph. Tonight the surface ridge of high pressure over the Great Plains will shift eastward into the local area. Winds will not be completely calm however, otherwise it will be a good radiational cooling setup making for one of the coolest night of the season thus far with lows dropping into the mid to upper 20s. The surface ridge of high pressure will remain the dominant feature through Friday into Friday night. Weak mixing Friday will keep highs on the cool side in the mid 40s to lower 50s. And, another decent radiational cooling setup on Friday night will again allow lows to drop into the mid 20s to lower 30s. Saturday, the surface ridge of high pressure will shift southeast of the area with modest WAA getting underway at the surface with subtle height rises aloft. This will allow highs to move back above normal into the 50s. Sunday, the flow aloft become zonal with continue WAA at the surface ahead of a approaching cold front. This will allow highs to move way above normal into the upper 50s to mid 60s. The aforementioned cold front will shift through the area Sunday night. Moisture will be lacking so the frontal passage is expected to be dry. However, strong CAA behind the front Sunday night into Monday will make for a much cooler day on Monday with highs in the 40s. Surface high pressure will move into the area Monday night into Tuesday under continued zonal flow aloft. Weak mixing will keep temperatures cool on Tuesday will highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. The best chance (20 to 30 percent) for precipitation during this forecast resides in the Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day timeframe. However, mid range models have not had very good run to run consistency and still have not come into agreement into how to handle an approaching upper level trough. The 21/00Z GFS is much more progressive with a upper level trough moving through the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest Wednesday into Wednesday night keeping the precipitation chance shunted to the south. The 21/00Z EC is advertising a much deeper upper level trough that would dig through the central Rockies and into the central Plains Wednesday into Thursday before moving through the area Thursday night. This solution would produce a rain to snow scenario with accumulating snow possible Thanksgiving Day into Thanksgiving night. This system will certainly need to be monitored as it may produce hazardous driving conditions on one of the biggest travel days of the year. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1027 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Wind gusts are increasing from north to south as mixing increases behind a cold front moving through the region. Gusty winds are expected to remain through the daylight hours on Thursday, decreasing towards sunset. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...73 AVIATION...BT