FXUS63 KEAX 180443 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1043 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 ...Updated 06z Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front is moving through the region this afternoon/evening. - Significantly below normal temperatures are expected for Saturday through Tuesday. - Below zero temperatures with significantly below zero wind chills will be possible Sunday night and Monday night. - Temperatures should rebound to near seasonal normals by Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 The forecast continues to look to be on track for a mostly dry but cold few days starting tonight. Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a large trough swinging across Canada and the U.S.A., helping eject a shortwave trough across the Southern and Central Plains. At the surface the large east moving Canadian trough has aloud an arctic high to start spilling south across the Plains States. As of this writing, the leading cold front is just pushing into far northwest Missouri. Looks like afternoon highs managed to get to the mid 40s to mid 50s, putting a dent in our snow pack. But, once the cold front moves through what snow and ice are there will be sticking around through at least the middle of next week. For tonight...the focus will be the cold front sweeping through, though there is a fleeting chance of some rain. Looking at the shortwave trough ejecting across the Southern and Central Plains, some radar returns are noted with the leading WAA. However, surface observations show the only rain reaching the ground to be down in Oklahoma. While temperatures will be dropping tonight, what precipitation falls with the Plains shortwave will be all liquid, and likely be focused across southern Missouri. There is some model outputs that show some light rain/sprinkles getting as far north as northern Missouri, but have left the forecast dry for now, only keeping the barest of chance POPs in central Missouri. For the weekend into early next work week...it is going to be cold. Looking way up north, the surface high sliding south behind the Canadian trough is 1048MB high at its heart in northern Canada. As this high slides south it will result in some of the coldest temperatures we have seen thus far this winter. Highs Saturday will still get into the 20s, but Sunday and Monday will likely only see max readings in the teens. Overnight lows will wallow in the single digits Saturday night into Sunday, but for Monday and Tuesday mornings we expect the coldest readings to range from zero to around -7F. Currently this results in forecast wind chill values between zero and -5 for Saturday morning, zero and -15 for Sunday and Monday morning, and zero to -20 for Tuesday morning. It looks likely that at least Tuesday morning will require a Cold Weather Advisory, and we might need one along the Iowa border Sunday or Monday mornings, but Tuesday currently looks to have the highest confidence of wind chills dropping below -15F. Otherwise, once the cold surface high sweeps through expect temperatures to return to more seasonally normal values for the later half of next work week with conditions remaining dry. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1041 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Cold front has started to move through the area. Patches of VFR ceilings will continue to move in and out. Winds will be northwesterly. Expecting gusts between 25 to 30kts overnight, and will remain above 20 kts for most of Saturday afternoon. Winds should diminish by Saturday evening. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cutter/Pesel AVIATION...Krull