FXUS63 KEAX 261115
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
615 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions with near seasonal temperatures and persistent
  clouds today.

- Showers and thunderstorms become likely along and south of I-70
  tonight - Sunday morning.

- Severe storms continue to look likely late Monday and Monday
  night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

High pressure, currently centered over Minnesota, will shift
eastward through the day and become centered over the western Great
Lakes by this evening. This will result in northeasterly winds
becoming more easterly by this evening. This also establishes a
fetch of mid-level moisture, around the eastern flanks of the
surface high, that will keep the area cloudy or mostly cloudy for a
good chunk of the day. The exception may be northern Missouri,
where enough dry air may work into the area to erode the
northern properer of the cloud cover. Overall, this will help
keep temperatures near to just below seasonal normals today with
highs in the mid 60s expected.

Tonight, showers and storms look likely to affect the area, mainly
along and south of I-70. There's several features of note
responsible for this. First, ongoing convection over the Texas
Panhandle appears to lead to an internal PV anomaly/ MCV. As
this feature moves into central Kansas, it helps pull moisture
northward into eastern Kansas and western Missouri from the
Arklatex, leading to the precipitation chances spreading into
the area. Instability and shear continue to look meager for this
so would not expect anything severe.

Focus then shifts to the potential for severe storms Monday evening
and overnight. This system just looks out of sync. While the
thermodynamic environment looks great, with CAPE values in the 2500
to 3000 J/kg range, the kinematic environment isn't as impressive,
at least for eastern Kansas and western Missouri, despite there
being strong deep-layer shear, in excessive of 50kts. First,
the upper- jet structure looks even more neutral than it did
yesterday, at least until the overnight hours when the region
moves more into the right entrance region. In the mid and lower
levels, there is weak or no convergence in the winds. All this
is likely the result of the upper trough being positively tilted
as it ejects into the middle of the country and the fact that
it lifts north of the forecast area. Additionally, this trough
orientation will likely result in the cold front being much
later and not synced with peak heating and maximum instability.
Further, while surface winds will be quite gusty, low-level flow
is veered to the south-southwest. All this suggest the best
chances for storms will be later, likely overnight, as the cold
front slowly sinks southward due to the best forcing being
displaced north of the area. With all that said though, forecast
soundings do show weak, or no inhibition during the late
afternoon/ early evening hours. If a storm can develop in the
open warm sector, with 2500-3000 J/kg of CAPE and 50+ kts of
deep-layer shear, it will very likely become severe with the
environment favoring supercells. If that occurs, large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible.

The pattern remains active through the end of the week. The front
that will move through the area Monday night into Tuesday morning,
stalls just south of the area. This front then becomes the focus for
additional rounds of showers and storms. If the front stays just
south of the area, the best potential for precipitation will remain
south as well. But it looks close enough that the southern half of
the forecast remains in chance to likely PoPs (25-75%) Wednesday
into Thursday. It's not until late in the week into the weekend that
PoPs fade away as upper ridging builds in from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 613 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Ceilings are fluctuating around 2000 feet this morning but
should trend higher by this afternoon. Ceilings trend back to
MVFR tonight with showers moving into the area. Winds generally
from the northeast this morning but will trend to the east and
then the southeast late in the forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB