ACUS01 KWNS 180043 SWODY1 SPC AC 180041 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible tonight across parts of the lower Mississippi into Tennessee Valleys and adjacent Gulf Coast vicinity. ...01Z Update... Downstream of building mid/upper ridging across the northeast Pacific through Alaska/Yukon vicinity, large-scale mid/upper trough amplification is underway along a positively tilted axis roughly extending across the Hudson Bay vicinity into the lee of the southern Rockies. This has been preceded by the east-northeastward acceleration of initially significant troughing emerging from the southern mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific, which is becoming increasingly sheared across the southern tier of the United States. One still notable embedded short wave perturbation is in the process of accelerating east-northeast of the southern Great Plains, and forecast to approach the southern Appalachians by 12Z Saturday. In response to the aforementioned short wave, low-level warm advection now overspreading the southeastern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley will continue to develop eastward tonight. Even with a sizable westerly component to the low-level wind fields, it appears that elevated moisture return emanating from a slowly modifying boundary layer over the Gulf of Mexico will contribute to weak destabilization. Latest model output continues to suggest that this may become sufficient for scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity as cooling aloft begins to overspread areas across and east/southeast of the lower Mississippi Valley by around 05-06Z. ..Kerr.. 01/18/2025 $$